内燃机之死

“Human inventiveness… has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles，” lamented Le Petit Journal， a French newspaper， in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages， held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam， petrol， electricity， compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km （78-mile） race， which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead. In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line， partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Todays electric cars， powered by lithium-ion batteries， can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1，000km on a single charge. UBS optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025， up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts， but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1，000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening， too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries， saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

To gauge what lies ahead， think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles， with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia， along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class， in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road， almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle， Americas car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles， electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong， the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While todays carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces， new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling， but low-margin， mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

Assuming， of course， that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion， along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology， could mean that ownership is largely replaced， by “transport as a service”， in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates， that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared， self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks （up to 24% of the area in some places） with new housing， and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

Even without a shift to safe， self-driving vehicles， electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones， according to Americas National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall， too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk， with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53，000 Americans each year， against 34，000 who die in traffic accidents.

Autos and autocracies

And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads， and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground， there will be a dearth of new investment， especially in new， high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast， producers such as Saudi Arabia， with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply， will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late： the Middle East will still matter， but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas， which will help generate power for all those electric cars， volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall， the adjustment will be fraught， particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse， the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

Meanwhile， a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4，000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14，000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars： utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia？ Not exactly， because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids， and then recycled.

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption， policymakers will need to help， by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations， and the recycling of batteries， rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways， just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.

1893年12月，法国《小日报》曾感叹道：“以人类的创造力……仍未找到可以取代马匹驱动车辆的机械方式。”第二年7月举办的巴黎至鲁昂无马马车赛算是对这一问题的回应。报名参赛的102辆车各有特色，有的靠蒸汽驱动，有的靠汽油驱动，有的靠电力驱动，有的靠压缩空气驱动，还有的靠液压装置驱动。只有21辆车取得了参加126公里（78英里）正式比赛的资格，比赛吸引了大批观众。内燃机成为当之无愧的赢家。在接下来的一个世纪，它将为工业提供动力，并改变世界。

内燃机的大限

但如今内燃机大限将至。电池技术的快速进步更利于电动机的发展。1894年巴黎的那场比赛中，没有一辆电力驱动的车成功踏上正赛的起跑线，部分原因在于那些车大约每30公里就需要有个电池更换站更换电池。当今的电动汽车采用锂离子电池，性能优异得多。雪佛兰博尔特续航可达383公里;特斯拉车迷最近驾驶Model S，一次充电就跑了1000多公里。瑞银集团乐观预测，到2025年，在全球汽车销售市场上，电动汽车占比将从目前的1%升至14%。其他机构更为谨慎，但也在加紧调高预测比例，因为电池价格越发便宜且性能越发优异——每千瓦时的成本已从2010年的1000美元降至目前的130—200美元。相关监管也在收紧。不断有国家宣布禁售燃油车，英国上月也加入了这一行列。英国政府表态，到2050年所有新车必须实现零排放。

从燃料和活塞向电池和电动机的转变未必需要那么长时间。内燃机第一波临终哀鸣已经回荡在世界各个角落，而随之产生的诸多变化都将为世人所乐见。

要看清未来的形势，需要思考内燃机如何塑造了现代生活。发达国家因机动车而重建，投入巨资建设道路交通网，开发郊区，建立大型购物中心和汽车餐厅。大约85%的美国职工开车上下班。在战后的美国和世界其他地方，汽车制造业也促进了经济发展，扩大了中产阶级的规模。如今全世界汽车保有量约为10亿辆，路上行驶的汽车几乎都由化石燃料驱动。尽管美国的轿车和货车引擎大多处在闲置状态，但它们所能产生的能量是发电厂的10倍。内燃机是历史上最强大的引擎。

但是电气化使汽车工业陷入了混乱。汽车工业最好的品牌都建立在它们深厚的工程技术积淀上，特别是在德国。和目前的燃油汽车相比，电动汽车结构更简单，部件也更少。它们就好比装上轮子的计算机。这意味着需要的组装人手更少，需要专业供应商提供的配套系统也更少。不生产电动汽车的制造厂的工人担忧自己可能面临被炒鱿鱼的命运。故障少了，维修和配件市场会随之萎缩。工厂老旧，员工队伍臃肿，这样的历史包袱令今天的汽车制造商不堪重负，而新入行者将轻装上阵。高端品牌依靠款式设计和驾驶性能或许还能够屹立不倒，但面向大众市场的低利润汽车制造商将不得不把競争重心放在成本上。

当然，这样的情况是假设人们都想拥有自己的车。电力驱动，加之打车软件和自动驾驶技术，可能意味着人们很大程度上不再需要买车，而代之以享受“交通服务”，有成群结队的车辆会按需提供搭乘服务。最糟糕的估计是，这可能让汽车产业缩水90%。大量共享自动驾驶电动汽车涌现，会让城市缩小停车场占地（在某些地方，停车场占地达24%），转而将这些占地用于建筑新的住房，这还可以让通勤路途遥远的人在途中打个盹儿——城市郊区化的趋势将发生逆转。

即使无法改用安全的自动驾驶汽车，电力驱动也会带来巨大的环境和健康益处。相比各个引擎单烧燃料，通过中心电站为汽车电池充电，能源利用率会更高。根据美国国家资源保护委员会的测算，与燃油汽车相比，目前的电动汽车可以减少54%的碳排放量。随着电动汽车能效提高，电网发电更加清洁，这一数字还会上升。当地的空气污染状况也会改善。世界卫生组织表示，户外空气污染每年导致370万人死亡，这是危及健康最大的环境风险。一项研究发现，每年因汽车尾气死亡的美国人有5.3万之多，而死于交通事故的只有3.4万人。

汽车与独裁

此外，还有石油的问题。在美国，汽车消耗了大概三分之二的石油，提炼原油生产汽油和柴油的副产品则消耗了其余的相当一部分。石油产业对于需求高峰何时到来意见不一。荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司表示可能不会超过10年。在那一刻到来之前的很长一段时间内，产业前景会使油价承担重压。因为没有人想在地下囤积毫无价值的石油，所以新的投资会不足，尤其是对于北极这样新开发的高成本地区。相比之下，像沙特阿拉伯这样的产油国，拥有大量可以廉价开采的石油储备，将面临及时开采以免为时过晚的压力。中东地区仍将重要，但相比以前，其影响力会大大削弱。尽管天然气仍会有市场，可帮助为所有那些电动汽车供电，但对于那些依靠碳氢化合物收入来支撑国家财政的国家，波动的油价会令它们掣肘。当产量下降，调整将令人担忧，特别是在一些权力之争长久以来就是石油财富控制权之争的地方。在像安哥拉和尼日利亚这样的国家，石油經常是一种诅咒，经济影响力的散播或许会带来巨大的收益。

同时，对锂的争夺也在展开。碳酸锂的价格已经从2011年的每吨4000美元升至如今的超过1.4万美元。电动机必备的钴和稀土元素的需求也在飙升。锂不仅可以用于为汽车供电：电力公司希望在用电低谷时利用巨型电池存储电能，在用电高峰时释放电能。这一切是否会使富含锂资源的智利成为新的沙特阿拉伯？未必，因为电动车并不会消耗锂，车上用过的锂离子电池可以在电网中重复使用，然后回收再利用。

内燃机曾经大行其道，并且未来几十年仍会主导水运和空运领域。但在陆上，电动机很快会让人们自由享受更廉价、清洁的便利出行。转向电动汽车会扭转发达世界减少电力消耗的趋势，所以政策制定者需要确保有足够的发电能力加以推动。他们可能需要为公共充电站的建设，以及电池、稀土发动机和其他“城市矿藏”的循环利用，推动制定新的规则和标准。他们还将不得不应对旧工厂岗位取消带来的社会动荡。

就像20世纪内燃机驱动的汽车那样，21世纪的无人驾驶电动车将会以深远且无法预知的方式让这个世界变得更好。但前路坎坷，请系好安全带。