Succession: The Real-Life Crisis, Not the HBO Series后继无人：HBO连续剧影射现实危机

乔纳森·拉索

The one common denominator1 of certain business owners？ They cannot find anyone to take over when they retire.

Many of us were riveted by the Roys and their myriad2 dysfunctional3 dramas on HBOs hit series Succession. While we eagerly await season three of the behind-the-scenes media empire drama， a real crisis is unfolding in the American economy. I know this from firsthand experience， but also from recent data and policy issues making business news headlines.

I have a country house. Toys， too—boats， cars， a motor scooter4. Over several decades， these objects have fostered relationships with carpenters， masons， roofers， electricians （both land and marine）， painters， plumbers， auto mechanics， boat mechanics and landscapers.

The one common denominator of these business owners？ They cannot find anyone to take over when they retire. Almost all of them work alone or with labor that is not able to succeed them. Over the years， I have repeatedly asked why this is so.

The answers：

“Its too hard to find anyone interested in being a plumber.” （Fill in with “carpenter，” etc.）

“Way too expensive to train someone. Plus， I have to pay workers comp， social security， payroll tax and then they often quit in a year.”

“No one wants to do this trade for life anymore.”

“My teens would rather be TikTok micro-influencers.”

The local papers run ‘Help Wanted ads 52 weeks a year for marine mechanics， electricians， plumbers assistants and licensed heating technicians. These are all high-wage jobs; some of these skilled tradesmen make well over six figures.

Recently， several nonprofits joined forces with academia and the corporate world to study the situation. They found that 30 million low-wage workers （for example， at Walmart or McDonalds） have the ability to earn 70 percent more income if they had the right training， either in their current field or a new one.

One of the key findings was that some jobs currently requiring a college degree actually dont need one. Companies should “hire… based on skills rather than degrees as a matter of fairness and economic efficiency. For example， computer technicians often earn more than $75，000/year. This job should not require college.”

Bestselling author David Goodharts recent book， Head， Hand， Heart directly addresses the entire range of issues. He goes into societys biases against working in a trade5 by arguing that we wrongly prioritize and even idolize the wrong kind of work. According to him， theres more than equal value in working with your head （adjunct professor）， your hands （motorcycle mechanic） or your heart （cheesemaker）.

In his view， the problem is that society admires and rewards the quant currency trader who programs a path to riches by arbitraging6 the Turkish lira against the Canadian loonie7. How useful to society is that？ Why should that person live in Greenwich， Connecticut？

To some degree this mispricing of occupational status has been challenged by COVID-19. Clearly someone who can keep our lights on， computer functioning or home warm—not to mention take our blood oxygen—has been properly deemed more “essential” than， for example， a plastic surgeon who can tighten a neck fold.

Progress is slowly being made. The same study advocating for training to obtain higher-wage jobs， pointed out that foundations like Markle are working with companies including AT&T， Kaiser Permanente， Microsoft and    others on apprenticeship programs.

Congress is not unaware of this worker/job misalignment8. The House recently passed an amendment to the National Apprenticeship Act that streamlines cumbersome9 rules and incentivizes10 businesses to take on trainees. It awaits Senate action.

It would be smart to rethink how we view and train our workforce for another reason. The inequality gap needs to be narrowed. The chorus11 of economists and political commentators telling us this is the issue for our society grows by the day. Upping the skills of the workforce addresses that in a positive way. Few would deny that innovators and industry disruptors should be well compensated for building things like Teslas or platforms like Airbnb. But the people who keep civilization going should share in societys bounty12.

Regardless， it seems imperative for all of us to focus on this issue for another reason. Self- interest. If we cant keep our buildings， houses， cars， computers and recreational goods in working order， things will fall apart. We need to put people to work in living-wage jobs， jobs that eliminate the need for the government to subsidize food and health care as it does for so many recipients. Most importantly， we need to give millions of non-college bound young people a pathway to dignity and make them part of our productive society.

All of this is going to require a sea change. Perhaps it starts with perception—that the head， hand and heart are valuable. Then onto government， where， in places like Germany， apprenticeships are a core part of industrial policy. Lastly， it may be as simple as acknowledging and honoring the value that craftspeople and tradespeople bring to our lives.

某些企业主的共同特点是什么？他们退休后都找不到人来接替。

HBO的热播剧《继承》中的罗伊家族和他们之间种种离奇事件吸引了我们很多人。而就在我们急切地等待这部媒体帝国幕后大戏的第三季时，一场真正的危机正在美国经济中上演。我是从自己的亲身经历，以及最近的数据和商业新闻头条中的政策问题了解到的。

我在乡下有一栋房子。也有各种供消遣的玩意儿，比如船、汽车和摩托车。几十年来，因为这些物件，我与木匠、泥瓦匠、屋顶工人、（陆上和海上的）电工、油漆工、水管工、汽车机械师、船舶机械师和园林设计师等都有过交往。

这些企业主的共同特点是什么？他们退休后都找不到人来接替。他们几乎所有人都是独自工作，要么就是手下人无法接替他们。这么多年来，我反复问为什么会这样。

答案如下：

“找一个对当水管工感兴趣的人太难了。” （“木匠”等工作也同样如此。）

“培训一个人太贵了。此外，我还得给工人交补偿保险、社会保险、工资税，然后他们往往一般不到一年就辞职了。”

“不再有人愿意一辈子干这行了。”

“我的孩子们宁愿当抖音的小网红。”

当地报纸一年到头都在刊登“招工”广告，招聘船舶机械师、电工、水管工助理以及有执照的供暖技术人员。这些都是高薪工作;有些手艺精湛的技工挣到的钱甚至大大超过六位数。

最近，几家非营利组织与学术界和企业界联手研究了这一情况。他们发现，3000万名低收入工人（例如，在沃尔玛或麦当劳工作的人），如果在当前领域或新领域接受了适当的培训，就有能力比目前多挣70%的收入。

研究中还有一个重要发现，即目前一些岗位要求有大学学历而实际上并不需要。公司应该“从公平和经济效率的角度考虑，根据技能而不是学历来招聘。例如，计算机技术人员的年薪通常在7.5万美元以上，这份工作就不应该要求有大学学历”。

畅销书作家戴维·古德哈特在新书《头脑、双手、心灵》中坦率地分析了所有问题。他深入探讨了社会对从事某一行当的偏见，认为我们总是错误地看重，甚至推崇不合适的工作类型。根据他的说法，用头脑（客座教授）、双手（摩托车修理工）或者心灵（奶酪制造师）工作，价值完全同等。

在古德哈特看来，问题在于社会推崇且奖励量化货币交易员这一行业，这些人通过在土耳其里拉和加拿大卢尼之间进行套利来规划自己的致富之路。这对社会能有多大用处？为什么那样的人竟然可以住在康涅狄格州的格林威治？

这种对职业的错误定价某种程度上受到了新冠疫情的挑战。显然，现在人们正确地认为能让我们的灯亮着，电脑运转着，或者能让我们家里温暖的人要比什么能收紧颈部褶皱的整形医生“必要”多了;就更不用说为我们测血氧的人了。

情况正在慢慢得到改善。那项主张通过培训获得高薪工作的研究指出：类似马克尔这样的基金会正在与美国电话电报公司、凯撒医疗集团、微软公司等企业合作开展学徒计划。

国会并非没有无视工人和工作之间的不对等。最近众议院通过了《国家学徒法》的修正案，简化了繁琐的规则，并鼓励企业招收实习生。这项法案目前仍在等待参议院的审议。

我们出于另一种理由去重新思考如何看待和培训劳动力，这是明智的。我们需要缩小不平等差距。经济学家和政治评论人士的呼声与日俱增，他们齐声告诫我们，这是我们的社会问题。而提高劳动力的技能以一种积极的方式解决这个问题。几乎没有人会否认，创新者和行业颠覆者应该因为建造了特斯拉这样的东西或爱彼迎这样的平台而得到丰厚的补偿。但是维持文明发展进程的人应该享有社会的奖励。

无论如何，我们所有人都必须关注这个问题还有一个原因，那就是切身利益。如果我们不能让建筑、房屋、汽车、电脑和娱乐用品正常运转，那么一切都会分崩离析。我们需要让人们从事能维持生计的工作，有了这样的工作就不需要政府像现在这样，为众多受助者提供食品和医疗补贴。最重要的是，我们需要给数百万上不了大学的年轻人提供一条有尊严的生路，让他们也能为社会生产力添砖加瓦。

所有这一切都需要翻天覆地的变化。也许它始于一种认知，即头脑、双手与心灵是有价值的。然后是政府：在像德国这样的地方，学徒制是工业政策的一个核心部分。最后，它也许其实很簡单，那就是承认和尊重工匠和技工给我们生活带来的价值。

（译者为“《英语世界》杯”翻译大赛获奖者）