The Current State, Dynamics and Future Trajectory of India’s Relations with the

The geopolitical importance of India has risen significantly in recent years following the introduction of Indo-Pacific Strategies by the US-led Western countries.These Western countries are expanding their bilateral and multilateral cooperation with India in areas ranging from economy, trade and security.They have established unprecedented strategic relationships and started substantive cooperation in many areas.The author believes that in the 75 years since India’s independence in 1947 until today,the relationship between India and Western countries has never been as close as it is currently.The relationship between the two sides is at their best level in history.

The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022 triggered a drastic adjustment in the international geopolitical landscape.There are serious disagreements between India and Western countries regarding their response to the Ukraine crisis.India refused to follow Western countries’political isolation and economic blockade against Russia.On the contrary,it maintains a high level of political interaction and expands cooperation in energy, defense, and other fields with the Russians.The Indian-Western countries’ disagreement on the Ukraine crisis calls for an urgent examination of their relationship.This article will review the current state of India’s relationship with Western countries, analyze its dynamics and implications,and look forward to its future trajectory.

India’s Unprecedented Close Relationship with Western Countries

There is no universal definition of what are the Western countries.The concept traced its roots to the Greco-Roman civilization of Europe and then the spread of Christianity on the continent.In the modern era,the concept has been heavily influenced by the Renaissance, Protestant Reformation, and Age of Enlightenment traditions and shaped by the expansive colonialism of the 15th-20th centuries.Based on this historical linkage, it is generally accepted that the term mainly refers to European countries, North America (United States, Canada), and Oceania(Australia, New Zealand).There is also a view that Western countries refer to countries where Western ideology dominates, mainly the Five Eyes Alliance countries and the EU countries (including 27 member countries).Different definitions have their basis and rationality.In this paper, we follow the latter definition.In this context, the relationship between India and Western countries refers to the relationship between India, the Five Eyes Alliance, and the EU countries.

India keeps close strategic coordination with Western countries in the geopolitical space.The US is the pivotal Western country to India.The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United States Department of State defined the US-India strategic partnership as “founded on shared values including a commitment to democracy and upholding the rules-based international system.” The two countries have shared interests in promoting global security, stability, and economic prosperity through trade, investment,and connectivity.1US Department of State, “US Relations with India,” https://www.state.gov/u-srelations-with-india/.The United States supports India’s emergence as a leading global power and a vital partner. Since US President Joe Biden took office, he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have held two in-person bilateral meetings.India and the US have established dozens of bilateral dialogue and working group meetings covering many aspects of bilateral relations.The 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between the US Secretaries of State and Defense and their Indian counterparts is the premier recurring dialogue mechanism between the United States and India.The two countries just completed their fourth 2+2 Dialogue in April 2022.In addition to the 2+2 Dialogue, the US and India have cooperated in dozens of bilateral dialogues and working groups.These include the US-India Counterterrorism Joint Working Group, which was established in 2000, as well as the Strategic Clean Energy Partnership, Climate Action and Finance Mobilization Dialogue,Cyber Dialogue, Civil Space Working Group, the Education and Skills Development Working Group, Trade Policy Forum, Defense Policy Group,and Counternarcotics Working Group.

In addition, India and the United States cooperate closely at different multilateral organizations forums, including the United Nations,G-20, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization. India is a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association(IORA), where the United States is a dialogue partner.In 2021, the United States joined the International Solar Alliance, established in March 2018 and headquartered in India, promising to provide the highest level of clean,affordable, and sustainable energy to address global climate change.In 2022, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Administrator Samantha Power became Co-chair of the Governing Council of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), an organization in which India is the permanent co-chair and was advocated by Premier Modi in COP21.

On EU-India relations, the EU official documents emphasized that the world’s two largest democracies share a commitment to protecting and promoting human rights, a rules-based global order, effective multilateralism, sustainable development, and free trade.2European Union External Action, “Factsheet: EU-India Relations,” https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/factsheet-eu-india-relations_en.The two sides have established an annual summit mechanism as the cornerstone of EU-India relations.The summits provide the platform for both sides to discuss various issues and have become a core mechanism for political communication and cooperation.3European Union External Action, “Factsheet: EU-India Relations.”The first India-EU Summit took place in Lisbon in June 2000 and resulted in a roadmap for the India-EU partnership.At the 5th India-EU Summit in 2004, the relationship was upgraded to a “Strategic Partnership.” The two sides adopted a Joint Action Plan at the 6th Summit that provided for strengthening dialogue and consultation mechanisms.At the 15th Summit in 2020, the “EU-India Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025” was adopted to guide their cooperation over the next five years. Since 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,and other European dignitaries have repeatedly visited India, highlighting the close relationship between the two parties.Indian Prime Minister Modi also visited EU countries such as Germany, Denmark, and France.In her April 2022 visit to India, President von der Leyen said: “As vibrant democracies, India and the European Union share fundamental values and common interests...For the European Union, the partnership with this region is one of our most important relationships for the coming decade,and strengthening this partnership is a priority for the European Union.Our strategic cooperation should take place at the nexus of trade, trusted technology, and security, notably in respect of challenges posed by rival governance models.”

In addition to enhancing bilateral relations and cooperating on international issues, there has been a notable increase in coordination between India and Western countries on the Indo-Pacific issue.In 2006,then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed establishing a strategic security dialogue mechanism among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.In May 2007, officials from the four countries held their first security dialogue on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum to discuss the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).Subsequently, due to political changes in Japan and India, the dialogue stalled until 2017, when the four countries held a working-level consultation meeting on the eve of the East Asia Summit.The international media widely interpreted the meeting as the resurrection of the Quad mechanism.From 2017 to 2019, multiple rounds of working-level talks and foreign ministers’ meetings were held among the four countries.From March 2021 to May 2022, the Quad held four summit-level meetings—two virtual and two in person.Currently, the Quad mechanism can be described as the most visible and solid cooperation achievement between India and Western countries on the “Indo-Pacific Strategy.”

India’s economic relationship with Western countries elevated from trade and investment facilitation to supply-chain and connectivity cooperation.First, India’s bilateral trade and investment with Western countries continue to increase.In 2021, overall US-India bilateral trade in goods and services reached a record US$157 billion. The United States is India’s largest trading partner and most important export market.Many US companies view India as a critical market and have expanded their operations there.Likewise, Indian companies seek to increase their presence in US markets. At the end of 2020, Indian investment in the United States totaled US$12.7 billion, supporting over 70,000 American jobs.The nearly 200,000 Indian students in the United States contribute US$7.7 billion annually to the US economy.4US Department of State, “US Relations with India.”

The India-EU trade and investment are also sizable, though they are smaller than the India-US figures.The India-EU bilateral trade in goods and services was €95.5 billion in 2020.The EU was India’s third largest trading partner in 2021, accounting for almost 11 percent of total Indian trade in 2021.The EU was India’s second-largest export destination.Almost 15 percent of Indian exports went to the EU in 2021.Besides, EU foreign direct investment in India reached €87 billion in 2020, among which the European Investment Bank invested €3.8 billion in infrastructure, energy,and climate projects.Six thousand EU companies in India created 1.7 million jobs directly and 5 million indirectly.5European Union External Action, “Factsheet: EU-India Relations.”Moreover, in 2021, the EU and Indian leaders agreed to resume negotiations for a free trade agreement,seeking solutions to long-standing market access issues.They also agreed to launch separate negotiations on an investment protection agreement and an agreement on geographical indications (GIs).Both sides are also strengthening coordination and cooperation on global economic governance within the framework of WTO and G20.

Second, India’s integration into Western countries’ industrial and value chains was initiated.In April 2019, the US announced the launch of the“Economic Prosperity Network” (EPN) program with so-called “trusted partners” such as India, Australia, and Japan.By strengthening cooperation with members of the EPN, the US pushed its companies to withdraw from China to weaken China’s position in the global industrial chain.Then,India and the United States introduced a series of policies to complement this program, promoting the transfer of American companies from China to India.In 2020, the Indian government reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the US and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China.6“India Looks to Lure More Than 1,000 US Companies out of China,” May 7, 2020, https://www.bloombergquint.com/economy-finance/india-looks-to-lure-more-than-1-000-u-scompanies-out-of-china/.However, the number of American companies withdrawing from China is limited, and most of the withdrawn companies did not settle in India after the withdrawal.India,Japan, and Australia have launched the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative(SCRI) to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and build a new supply chain network.In May 2022, the US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), considered one of the most important measures to strengthen economic ties with regional countries since the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017.The economic bloc has 14 members, including the United States, Australia,India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, and other countries.India has taken a positive stance on the framework, not only deciding to join it as soon as possible but also repeatedly expressing support internationally.The US Department of State stated that India was one of the twelve countries partnering with the United States on the IPEF to make every member economy more connected, resilient, clean, and fair.In July 2022, the United States hosted the Supply Chain Ministerial Forum,collaborating with India and other partners to reduce near-term supply chain disruptions and enhance supply chain resiliency.7“India Adopts US’ Joint Statement on Cooperation of Global Supply Chains,” July 21, 2022, https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-adopts-us-joint-statement-oncooperation-ofglobal-supply-chains-122072100101_1.html.

Third, India’s interconnectivity cooperation with Western countries has been improved.In November 2019, the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and Japan Bank for International Cooperation(JBIC) unveiled Blue Dot Network (BDN)—a multi-stakeholder initiative that brings together governments, the private sector, and civil society to promote high-quality, trusted standards for global infrastructure development in an open and inclusive framework.Instead of providing much-needed financing for infrastructure projects in developing countries,BDN will “evaluate and certify nominated infrastructure projects based upon adherence to commonly accepted principles and standards to promote market-driven, transparent, and financially sustainable infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world.”8“The Launch of Multi-Stakeholder Blue Dot Network,” November 4, 2019, https://www.dfc.gov/media/opic-press-releases/launch-multi-stakeholder-blue-dot-network/.Similarly, India also launched a new Connectivity Partnership with the EU in May 2021 to promote a transparent, viable, inclusive,sustainable, comprehensive, and rules-based approach to connectivity jointly.The EU and India emphasize social, economic, fiscal, climate, and environmental sustainability, transparency, viability, good governance, and a level playing field for economic operators.The Partnership will explore initiatives to improve connectivity between the EU and India and ensure synergies and complementarities between their developmental cooperation with partner countries.9European Council, “EU-India Connectivity Partnership,” May 8, 2021, p.1, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/08/eu-india-connectivity-partnership-8-may-2021/.Subsequently, in December 2021, the EU launched Global Gateway, aiming to boost smart, clean, and secure links in digital, energy, and transport areas. To this end, Global Gateway aims to mobilize up to €300 billion10Rahul Kamath, “India and the European Union: A Relationship Yet to Achieve its True Potential,”February 9, 2022, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-and-the-european-union/.in investments between 2021 and 2027 to support inter-connectivity projects, including those in pivotal Indo-Pacific countries like India.“It (the Global Gateway strategy) is massive.The total funding for this project is 300 billion Euros.I am confident that the Indo-Pacific and India could receive a chunk of it,” French Ambassador to India Emmanuel Lenain said.11“India Could Get a Chunk of EU’s Euro 300 Billion Fund under Global Gateway Scheme: French Envoy,” October 9, 2022, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/94741137.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst.President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen also noted during her visit to India in April 2022 that the EU’s Global Gateway strategy opens new opportunities for cooperation and investments in secured and sustainable infrastructure in India and the region.

The security cooperation between India and Western countries escalated, and point-to-point defense linkage became planar.India and the US have signed four foundational security cooperation agreements.The General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA),signed in 2002, prescribed military intelligence sharing procedures and security standards and safeguarded others’ secret information.The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), signed in August 2016,allows the militaries of the US and India to replenish provisions subject to reimbursement from each other’s bases and to access supplies, spare parts,and services from each other’s land facilities, air bases, and ports.The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) was signed in September 2018 after the first India-US 2+2 dialogue.It allows the US to provide India with its encrypted communications equipment and systems so that Indian and US military commanders, and the aircraft and ships of the two countries, can communicate through secured networks during peacetime and at war.The signing of COMCASA paved the way for transferring secured communication equipment from the US to India to facilitate “interoperability” between their forces.12Wang Shida, “On the Role of Defense Cooperation in Promoting Indo-Pacific Strategic Coordination between India and the United States,” South Asian Studies, No.3, 2021.The Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed in 2020 permits the exchange of unclassified and controlled unclassified geospatial products, topographical,nautical, and aeronautical data, products, and services between India and the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).The US viewed these four pacts as conventional tools for promoting military cooperation with partner countries.

In addition, security cooperation between India and the United States continues to escalate and intensify.In June 2016, the United States designated India as a Major Defense Partner, similar to Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status.Commensurate with this designation, in July 2018,India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorization tier 1 status, which allows India to receive license-free access to a wide range of military and dual-use technologies regulated by the Department of Commerce.Over the five years from 2015 to 2019, India was the second-largest arms importer in the world, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).13“India Was World’s Second-Largest Arms Importer in 2015-19: Report,” March 9, 2020, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/arms-imports-from-russia-decreased-in-2015-19-due-to-dropin-india-salesreport-11583772984894.html.India’s weapons procurement from the US includes P-8I long-range anti-submarine aircraft, C-17 transport aircraft, C-130J transport aircraft, Apache attack helicopters, Seahawk helicopters, Sea Guardian longrange drones, etc.Besides, the United States holds the most frequent military drills with India and regular drill mechanisms have been established between their armed services.

Moreover, the 2+2 dialogue mechanism between India’s foreign and defense ministers and the United States continues expanding their security cooperation.During the Fourth Annual US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2022, India decided to join the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force(CMF).Both sides reiterated their commitment to closer cooperation on information sharing, joint exercises, defense technology cooperation,logistics operations, and other aspects.In addition, the ministers concluded a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness.14“Fourth Annual US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue,” April 11, 2022, https://www.state.gov/fourthannualu-s-india-22-ministerial-dialogue/.

India has also deepened its security cooperation with other Western countries recently.In September 2021, India and Australia held the first 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between their foreign and defense ministers.They expressed a mutual desire to cooperate on issues about Afghanistan,international counter-terrorism, defense partnerships and other areas.Both countries committed to further enhancing their defense relationship.They invited each other to participate in their military exercises and agreed to strengthen mutual support in logistics between the two armed forces,enhancing coordination in maritime domain awareness and exploring cooperation in emerging areas like cyber security and space.15“Joint Statement on Inaugural India-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue,” September 11, 2021, https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/jointstatement-inaugural-india-australia-22-ministerial-dialogue.Given that India has signed mutual logistics support agreements with the United States,Australia, and Japan, this not only facilitates joint military operations among the four countries but also provides an institutional and material basis for the networking of their defense cooperation.The logistic cooperation provides the tangible substance to the Quad mechanism.16Wang Shida, “On the Role of Defense Cooperation in Promoting Indo-Pacific Strategic Coordination between India and the United States.”

India has always regarded EU countries as important import sources of weapons.France, Germany, Switzerland, and Belgium have all exported weapons to India.The Indian Air Force is equipped with at least three kinds of European combat aircraft: the Dassault Mirage 2000, the Rafale fighter jet, and the Jaguar attack aircraft.Security cooperation between India and the EU has recently expanded from weapons sales to other emerging areas.During their first maritime security dialogue in January 2021, the EU and India discussed cooperation in maritime domain awareness, capacitybuilding, and joint naval activities.Following their successful joint naval exercise in the Gulf of Aden in June 2021, the EU and India held their second maritime security dialogue in February 2022.The consultations included developments in the maritime security environment, policy developments covering the EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative, EU-India maritime cooperation,and regional initiatives to address international maritime security issues.17European Union External Action, “Second EU-India Maritime Security Dialogue,” January 2, 2022,https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/second-eu-india-maritime-security-dialogue_en.The first-ever India-EU Security and Defense Consultation was held in June 2022.The two sides noted several positive developments in security and defense cooperation in recent years, and they discussed various means of increasing India-EU cooperation on maritime security, implementing the European code of conduct on arms export to India’s neighborhood, and promoting joint development and production of weapons.18“India, EU Hold First-Ever Security, Defense Consultations,” June 12, 2022, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defense/india-eu-hold-first-ever-security-defense-consultations/articleshow/92165767.cms.

Dynamics and Causes

India’s relations with Western countries have seen significant progress.They have scored substantial achievements in political mutual trust, strategic coordination, economic and trade exchanges, industrial chain cooperation,interconnectivity, security coordination, and multilateral cooperation.The improvement is mainly due to the two sides’ increasing consensus on many issues and the convergence of interests between India and Western countries.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy is the most important driving force

For India, supporting the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the US in the great power rivalry enhances its strategic importance and potentially reaps tangible benefits.India believes that the Indo-Pacific concept puts the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific in the same geographical category, thus removing the exclusion of India from the Asia-Pacific concept.During the Shangri La Dialogue in 2009, India’s former naval chief, Admiral Arun Prakash,highlighted the conceptual contradiction in the term “Asia-Pacific”: “As an Indian, every time I hear the term Asia-Pacific, I feel a sense of exclusion,because it seems to include Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific islands, and it terminates at the Malacca Straits.But there is a whole world west of the Malacca Straits.”19“Trump’s New Cold War Alliance in Asia Is Dangerous,” November 15, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2017/11/14/trump-asia-trip/.“India could no longer be excluded from any over-arching reckoning in the Asia-Pacific, be it economic or security related,” said Indian navy Captain Gurpreet Khurana, who was among the first to coin the Indo-Pacific concept in an academic paper back in 2007.20“Indo-Pacific? Not from Where China Is Sitting...,” November 10, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-indo-pacific-idUSKBN1DA1YH.However, as a developing country, it is quite difficult for India to promote the Indo-Pacific concept globally with its own efforts.By comparison, the United States, Japan, India, and Australia have a combined population of 1.8 billion, about a quarter of the world’s total.The four countries account for about a quarter of global GDP and invest US$380 billion annually abroad,accounting for a quarter of the world’s total outbound investment.21Jeff M.Smith, “The Quad 2.0: A Foundation for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” July 6, 2020, p.22.India’s collective voice on the Indo-Pacific with the US, Japan, and Australia can spread and implement the Indo-Pacific concept more effectively.

Promoting the concept of Indo-Pacific and supporting India to help contain China was the policy started in the Trump era.The idea has been further strengthened and operationalized in recent years.In February 2022, the Biden administration unveiled the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States.The strategy has proposed ten guidelines in its action plan, and it recognizes that India is a like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.India is acknowledged to be active in and connected to Southeast Asia, a driving force of the Quad and other regional fora and an engine for regional growth and development.22The White House, “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,” February 2022, p.16.In its first National Security Strategy published in October 2022, the Biden administration pointed out that “The Indo-Pacific fuels much of the world’s economic growth and will be the epicenter of 21st century geopolitics,” “We have entered a consequential new period of American foreign policy that will demand more of the United States in the Indo-Pacific than has been asked of us since the Second World War,”“The PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military,and technological power to advance that objective.”23The White House, “National Security Strategy,” October 2022, p.8.Therefore, the United States places “free and open Indo-Pacific” at the top of its regional strategy, reaffirming India’s position as the world’s largest democracy and a Major Defense Partner and emphasizing that the United States and India will work together to support their shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.24Ibid., p.38.The strategy lists Quad and I2-U2 (India, Israel, UAE,and the US) as important mechanisms for cooperation.25Ibid., p.12.Harsh V.Pant,Professor of International Relations at King’s India Institute, commented,“Currently, India is of extreme importance to the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the US.India is crucial for the US to establish a stable balance of power in the larger Indo-Pacific region and globally, especially in times of resource constraints.With China’s rapid development, the US needs partners like India to restore its declining reputation in the Indo-Pacific region.”26“India-United States Relations,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93United_States_relations.The US intends to strengthen its competitive position against China by drawing in its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.The attempted alliance with India lies at the core of the strategy.

The EU’s focus on Indo-Pacific emphasized less geopolitical rivalry.It aims to maintain its key interests in the Indo-Pacific region, such as economy, trade, values, and free passage, and enhance the EU’s global position.

Firstly, the EU firmly believes it has a big stake in this region.According to the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific released in July 2021,the EU’s outermost peripheral regions and overseas territories of some of its members are situated in Indo-Pacific.The region is home to three-fifths of the world’s population, produces 60 percent of the global GDP, contributes two-thirds of pre-pandemic global economic growth, and is at the forefront of the digital economy.The region includes seven G20 members and the ASEAN, an increasingly important partner for the EU.The region’s growing economic, demographic, and political weight makes it a key player in shaping the international order and addressing global challenges.The EU is the top investor, the leading provider of development funds, and one of the biggest trading partners in the Indo-Pacific region.The Indo-Pacific and Europe together account for over 70 percent of the global trade in goods and services and over 60 percent of foreign direct investment flows.The region is the second-largest destination of EU exports and is home to four of the EU’s ten biggest trading partners.The region hosts major waterways vital to EU trade, including the Malacca Straits, the South China Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.27“EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” April 19, 2021, pp.1-2, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/jointcommunication_2021_24_1_en.pdf.

Secondly, the EU believes the Indo-Pacific region faces many challenges and threats.In the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,current dynamics in the Indo-Pacific have given rise to intense geopolitical competition adding to increasing tensions on trade and supply chains as well as in technological, political and security areas.28European Commission, “Questions and Answers: EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,”September 16, 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_4709.The COVID-19 pandemic has tested the resilience of economies and further exposed the interdependence of EU and Indo-Pacific partners.Geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific caused intense competition, including tensions around contested territories and maritime zones.There has been a significant military build-up, with the Indo-Pacific’s share of global military spending increasing from 20 percent of the world total in 2009 to 28 percent in 2019.The display of force and rising tensions in regional hotspots such as the South and East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait may directly impact European security and prosperity.The ongoing Afghanistan crisis demonstrates the spillover effect that events in the region have on Europe’s security.29“EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” p.2.

Thirdly, the EU always attached great importance to issues on values.As reflected in the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, efforts to establish a global level playing field based on transparent trade rules are increasingly undermined by unfair trade practices and economic coercion,increasing trade and supply chain tensions.Based on the above perceptions of interests and threats, the EU continues increasing its engagement with the Indo-Pacific region.During her visit to India in April 2022,President von der Leyen said, “Our vision is that the Indo-Pacific region remains free and open and becomes more interconnected, prosperous,secure and resilient with an open and rules-based security architecture that serves all interests.To this end, we will deepen our engagement with our partners in the region.”

The Ukraine crisis that broke out in February 2022 further moved the Western world to intensify its effort to draw in India.After the outbreak of the crisis, the US and its allies imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia,covering a wide spectrum of activities ranging from economy, trade, finance,technology, etc., and the West repeatedly proposed to condemn the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” at the United Nations.Several high-level Western envoys have been dispatched to New Delhi to persuade India to join their coalition against Russia.During his visit to India in March 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tried to persuade his Indian counterpart Modi to change his stance on the Ukraine crisis.In the same month, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison held a virtual summit with Modi, which also focused on the Ukraine crisis.

Economic complementarity between India and Western countries

For a long time, India has been eager to obtain funds and technology from Western countries to help it to become a leading world economic power.An apparent weakness of the Indian economy is that the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP has always been low.To change this situation, the Indian government proposed an ambitious “Make in India”initiative with plans to significantly increase the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP and create 100 million jobs.But it turns out that the contribution of India’s manufacturing sector to GDP had decreased from 30.16 percent in 2011 to 25.87 percent in 2021.30“India: Distribution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across Economic Sectors from 2011 to 2021,”https://www.statista.com/statistics/271329/distribution-of-gross-domestic-productgdp-across-economicsectors-in-india/.Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has continued its spread and hit the Indian economy hard.According to official data from India, GDP shrank by 6.6 percent in the fiscal year 2020-2021.31“India’s GDP Contracts 7.3% for FY 2020-21, Grew by 1.6% in Q4,” May 31, 2021, https://www.thequint.com/news/india/gdp-growth-for-financial-year-2020-21-government.In addition, the pandemic also exposed the heavy dependence of Indian manufacturing on China’s upstream and midstream industries.At the beginning of 2020, the spread of COVID-19 affected China, causing some Chinese industries to cut production, and the Chinese cutback seriously affected the related industries in India.According to official statistics from India in 2020, India relies on China for 20 percent of its imports of automotive parts, 70 percent of its imports of electronic products,32“How Dependent Is India on China? Here Is What Trade Data Reveals,” Money Control, June 3, 2020,https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/how-dependent-isindia-on-chinahere-is-what-trade-data-reveals-5346201.html.70 percent of its imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients, and 45 percent of its imports of durable consumer goods.33“Self-Reliant India: Which Sectors Depend on Imports, and Which Do Not,” May 14, 2020, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/self-reliant-india-which-are-the-sectors-dependent-onimports-whichare-not-6408407/.The Indian government is worried about such dependency and has introduced measures such as localized production and diversification of import sources, hoping to reduce dependence on Chinese industries.In this context, cooperation with Western countries can help the Indian authorities achieve these goals.In terms of the industrial division of labor, India and Western countries are complementary in the endowments of production factors: the US has markets, capital, and technology; the EU and Japan have the technology and relatively abundant capital; Australia is rich in energy and mineral resources; India has specific manufacturing production capacity, labor, and market.Their cooperation may form a closed-loop industrial chain that excludes China.

As early as 2019, India had taken measures to reduce its dependence on Chinese industries.In June 2019, the Indian government took a series of restrictive trade measures, like banning Chinese apps and limiting Chinese investment.Just one month later, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo encouraged India to reduce industrial dependence on China and to build its own industrial chains, promising to render support.34Neha Arora and Aftab Ahmed, “Pompeo Urges India to Reduce Dependence on China,” July 22, 2020,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-usa-china-idUSKCN24N213.The same month, the Indian conglomerate Reliance Group announced that its telecommunications company JIO would no longer use Huawei’s equipment.Subsequently, the Indian company received over US$10 billion in financing from American tech giants like Facebook and Google.The American move reinforces India’s perception that new links to Western countries can compensate for what is lost from China.

Western countries’ core economic demand lies in securing their supply chains by supporting India to replace China’s position partially and exploring India’s untapped huge market, with a population of over a billion.At the ninth meeting of the India-US Economic and Financial Partnership in November 2022, US Treasury Secretary Dr.Janet L.Yellen said that India and the US’s collaboration in the Economic and Financial Partnership would promote their growth and stability and can be instrumental in supporting economic prosperity across the Indo-Pacific region.In particular, deepening economic, trade, investment, and financial cooperation between India and the US is conducive to addressing global economic challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine crisis, rising global food and energy prices, and rising inflation.India’s participation in the IPEF and the United States’ promotion of outsourcing to India improve supply chain flexibility.35“Economic, Financial Ties a Critical Part of US-India Partnership, Says Yellen,” https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/economic-financial-ties-a-critical-part-of-us-indiapartnership-says-yellen/article66123885.ece.The EU believes that strengthening cooperation with important regional countries such as India in trade and investment can alleviate its economic pressure and challenges and help achieve its ambition of becoming a global power in the 21st century.

Security cooperation fits each other’s strategic interests

India can tap Western countries’ advanced weapons and equipment to accelerate its military building and use their superior military power to boost its weak military strength.India has prioritized its national defense building and military construction, but its ability to design and manufacture hightech armaments remains weak.The mismatch of intention and execution leads to its heavy reliance on imported weapons and military equipment.Due to multiple reasons, India’s arms suppliers, apart from Russia, are mainly Western countries.INS Vikrant, the supposedly first Made-in-India aircraft carrier, is an assortment of products from many countries.Italy provided its earliest design; its power system was from the United States, the transmission system from Germany, the radar system from Israel, the electrical system from Finland, and the carrier aircraft from Russia.It can be said that almost all the core components of the aircraft carrier come from Western countries.

In addition, India can use its security cooperation with Western countries to bargain with China.India has historical border disputes with Pakistan, Nepal, and China.Since their independence in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars due to territorial disputes, and the India-China border conflict broke out in 1962.The rapid growth of the Chinese economy since 1978 has significantly widened the overall power gap between the two countries.The Indian government takes the issue seriously and fears the gap between the two countries will keep widening.They even speculate that China will take unilateral actions to solve border issues after gaining absolute strength.

In recent years, Indian border troops caused several border incidents,such as the Donglang standoff between Chinese and Indian troops in June 2017 and the conflict at the Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020.According to a statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, there is no territorial dispute in the Donglang area, the delimited boundary between China and India in the Sikkim sector has been recognized by both countries for 127 years, and it was India that attempted to change the status quo by trespassing the borderline, not China.36“Comments from China’s Foreign Ministry on the Donglang Standoff: The Responsibility Lies Entirely with India, and China Will Not Make Any Compromises,” People’s Daily, July 24, 2017.However, in India’s view, this incident not only put China and India on the brink of military conflict or even war but also exposed the power gap between India and China.India’s foreign policy has accelerated the transition from its earlier so-called dynamic balance between China and the US to aligning with the latter to compensate for its comparatively weak military strength.

In November 2017, India changed its cautious and occasionally hostile attitude towards the Quad partnership.It agreed to hold a working-level consultation with high officials from the other three countries on the eve of the East Asia Summit.India also hopes to cooperate with Western countries in the Indian Ocean to exert pressure on China, attempting to force China to make concessions on border issues through land-sea collaboration.India’s media revealed that after the outbreak of the Galwan Valley incident on June 15, 2020, the Indian Navy quickly strengthened its military deployment on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands located to the west of the Malacca Strait and intensified patrols of the Strait of Malacca and the routes of the Chinese Navy entering the Indian Ocean.The Indian Navy also intensified the monitoring of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean region, and quietly dispatched naval vessels to the South China Sea to collect information on other countries’ warships and maintain continuous communication with US Navy vessels through encrypted communication systems.In November 2020,India held the Malabar naval exercise with the US, Australia and Japan,bringing the four nations together in the annual drill for the first time in 13 years.Its intent to gain self-respect by drawing support from the United States, Japan, and Australia was obvious.37Wang Shida, “Engaging in ‘Relieving the Besieged by Attacking the Base of the Besieger’ against China? India Should Not Be Fooled,” Global Times, December 3, 2020.

For the United States, it wants to reduce its own security burden by supporting India as a “net security provider” to the region while strengthening its military deployment targeting China and expanding its presence in the largest arms market, India.The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a famous US think tank, once published an article on the necessity of promoting US-India security cooperation, stating that the Indian Ocean region is one of the most crucial trade corridors that link the Middle East, Europe, Africa, South Asia, and Southeast and Northeast Asia.Since the end of the Cold War, the United States and India have gradually accepted each other’s presence as the main player in the Indian Ocean region.The US regards India as a maintainer of the US-led regional order,especially in ensuring the freedom of navigation and the safety of maritime routes; it supports India in becoming a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region and beyond.As China expands its influence in the Indian Ocean region, the geopolitical rivalry between China and India is becoming increasingly fierce.

Neither India nor China wants to engage in a military conflict to establish dominance.India will try to keep its favorable position in the Indian Ocean region in the next decade through strategic signaling,positioning, power projection, and enhancement of operational capabilities.Much of India’s advantage is rooted in geographic proximity and its extensive operational experience in the past, whereas it suffers from serious capacity constraints.If China finds a good way to maintain its long-term presence in the region and gain more experience operating there, it will be able to overcome India’s advantages quickly.Therefore, the emphasis of US-India security cooperation should not be on land, but on the maritime and air directions in the Indian Ocean.The United States should provide targeted assistance to the Indian Navy and Air Force in enhancing their maritime domain awareness, long-range surveillance patrols, anti-submarine capacity,and maritime information fusion capacity.38“Strengthening Delhi’s Strategic Partnerships in the Indian Ocean,” October 23, 2019, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/strengthening-delhis-strategic-partnerships-inthe-indianocen.

The US also tries to sell more arms to India.The Indian Armed Forces, with 1.38 million personnel, is an important weapons importer.According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI)’s annual report, India was the world’s largest arms importer in 2017-2021, with a weapons procurement of US$12.4 billion between 2018 and 2021.The historic close military tie forged in the Cold War makes the Indian weapon system still mainly equipped with Russian-made hardware.For example, the Indian Army is equipped with T-72 and T-90 main battle tanks as well as Mi-24 and Mi-35 attack helicopters; the Indian Air Force uses over 260 Su-30MKI multirole fighter jets and about 60 MiG-29 fighters; the Indian Navy’s INS Vikramaditya is a modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier.The US arms manufacturers are moving to get a bigger piece of the Indian arms market.The US arms manufacturers have been promoting their products to India, and they succeeded in gradually eroding Russia’s market share.The US has become the second largest supplier of weapons to India.39“India Was World’s Second-Largest Arms Importer in 2015-19: Report.”Russia’s arms exports to India fell 47 percent between 2012-2016 and 2017-2021.40“SIPRI: The United States Remains the World’s Top Exporter of Arms,” March 24, 2022, http://m.cyol.com/gb/articles/2022-03/24/content_ KPbVKTBPN.html.

Far-reaching Implications

The cooperation between India and Western countries continues to expand in the political, economic, and security areas, significantly impacting the balance of power and geopolitics.

The cooperation between India and Western countries added fuel to the rivalry among major powers on a global scale.The Cold War mentality and exclusive identity politics are rising around the world.Some countries try to expand their military alliances to seek absolute security,coerce other countries to choose sides and create camp confrontations.India has become a tempting target for all parties due to its dominant geographical location in South Asia, strong economic development momentum, and huge population size.India straddles the Eurasian continent and the Indo-Pacific Ocean.It is the only country joining both the Quad and China-Russia-India cooperation mechanisms.Former Foreign Secretary of India Kanwal Sibal said that the original intention of China-Russia-India cooperation was to avoid a US-led unipolar world and to maintain an UN-centric multipolar world.41Kanwal Sibal, “Russia, India and China: The Triangle that Matters,” December 11, 2017, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-5169025/Russia-India-China-trianglematters.htm.Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, a famous Indian political science scholar, also believes that China, Russia, and India are rising pillars in a multipolar globe and can play the role of a balancer in global political and economic processes and that their contribution to international economic growth, peace and stability are beyond doubt.42Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, “Prospects for the Russia-India-China Strategic Triangle,” February 11,2013, https://www.rbth.com/opinion/2013/02/11/prospects_for_the_russia-indiachina_strategic_triangle_22193.

However, with the promotion of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the increasingly close relationship between India and Western countries, India is leaning more toward the Indo-Pacific Ocean than the Eurasian continent.The tilting is evident when one compares the frequency and achievements of their high-level meetings between the Quad mechanism and the China-Russia-India Cooperation mechanism.Four summits have occurred in less than two years since the first Quad summit was held in March 2021.The frequency of activities under the China-Russia-India mechanism is relatively low, and the most recent trilateral summit was in November 2018.Six leader-level working groups are already functioning in the Quad, on COVID-19 Response and Global Health Security, Climate,Critical and Emerging Technologies, Cyber, Space, and Infrastructure.

A leading Indian foreign policy analyst, C.Raja Mohan, believed that the US’ change from the Asia Pacific to the Indo-Pacific placed new emphasis on India’s role in shaping the regional order.The change impaired India’s foreign policy tradition—distance from the West and solidarity with the East.He believed that Indo-Pacific and China-Russia-India cooperation are contradictory mechanisms.Russia’s interest in China-Russia-India cooperation stemmed from a determination to keep the Russian-Eurasian partnership going after the collapse of the Soviet Union.It also was premised on the bet that India had much in common with China in the international arena and that cooperation on global issues would help limit the conflict at the bilateral level.However, India’s relations with Russia have stagnated, and those with China have hit a new low. India pursues multipolarity goals at both the international and regional levels.If the BRICS forum promoted multipolarity in the world, the Quad is about ensuring multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific.The success of any new Indian strategy will depend upon Delhi’s ability to strengthen its independent profile and foster local partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and Eurasia.43C.Raja Mohan, “Remapping India’s Geopolitics,” January 1, 2018, http://www.india-seminar.com/2018/701/701_c_raja_mohan.htm.In India’s External Affairs Minister Dr.S.Jaishankar’s speech on “India’s Vision of the Indo-Pacific,”the future of world order largely depends on a fairer and more democratic distribution of power and resources, so the world must become more multipolar, and a multipolar world must first be centered on a multipolar Asia.44“Address by External Affairs Minister, Dr.S.Jaishankar at the Chulalongkorn University on India’s Vision of the Indo-Pacific,” August 18, 2022, https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/35641/Address+by+Externa l+Affairs+Minister+Dr+S+Jaishankar+at+the+Chulalongkorn+University+on+Indias+Vision+of+the+IndoPacific.Regarding national strength and influence, India is not the key player in international politics but is expected to become the “most important chip.” Its shifting between the Eurasian continent and the Indo-Pacific Ocean is related to the international system’s power transition and pattern adjustment.

The cooperation between India and Western countries leads to an increasingly tense regional security situation and power imbalance in South Asia.India has been drifting between Western countries and Russia, and the two contending parties have spared no effort to draw it in, resulting in an unprecedentedly favorable international environment for India.Besides, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) upholds a radical Hindu nationalist ideology and has won federal and local elections in succession.It has unprecedented control over the country, and India’s economic growth is also outstanding among emerging economies, which further increases the political confidence of the leaders.In this context, the Indian authorities have adopted a radical approach to foreign affairs, believing that “the greater the risk, the greater the reward,” which differs from previous governments.In particular, India, with the support of Western countries, has shown a clear sense of adventure and speculation in dealing with its old rival Pakistan.India has repeatedly launched so-called “surgical strikes” against Pakistan in recent years and frequently pressured Pakistan on issues such as Kashmir and terrorism in international and regional settings.India’s ignoring of Pakistan’s core interests and major concerns exacerbated the fragility of the security situation in South Asia.

In addition, with its closer relations with Western countries and the better international environment, India considers its global status equivalent to that of China in the 1970s and 1980s, i.e., the triangular relationship between China, the US, and the Soviet Union.India believes that “with the tense relationship between China and the United States, China needs to stabilize its relations with India, so it has to resort to India.” Therefore, India has a clear speculative mentality when dealing with its relations with China.After asking for high prices without any results, it started to adopt more aggressive policies.For example, India has re-linked the normalization of China-India relations with the progress in the final settlement of their border issues and insisted on clarifying the Line of Actual Control as the first step in border negotiations.

Challenges Ahead

In the foreseeable future, the US government is unlikely to stop promoting the Indo-Pacific Strategy, and Western countries’ emphasis on India will not weaken or stop.India also welcomes that the US regards China as its“primary competitor” and “No.1 geopolitical challenge.” It readily accepts and actively caters to Western countries’ efforts to draw it in.India gains substantial benefits from the de-facto alliance by subtlely voicing different positions on different issues to echo the West.India also seeks greater benefits or concessions from Russia and China, using its closer relationship with Western countries as a bargaining chip.The overall trend of cooperation between India and Western countries will not change in the short term.But it is also worth mentioning that although India’s partnership with Western countries has strong momentum, it will continue to face many challenges and constraints.

Firstly, the Ukraine crisis has exposed the inadequacy of strategic cooperation between India and Western countries.Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the United States and its allies have repeatedly launched proposals at the UN to condemn “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” but India has abstained from voting.The Indian strategic community believes that the Ukraine crisis has a complex historical background and that it is simplistic to condemn “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” expressing its understanding of Russia’s concern about NATO’s eastward expansion.Besides, the Indian government calls for a peaceful resolution of the crisis through negotiations.During his in-person meetings and phone conversations with Russian President Putin in 2022, Modi emphasized that “now is not an era for war”and that conflicts and violent actions should be ended as soon as possible,calling for a “sincere dialogue between Russia and NATO immediately.”45“‘Not an Era for War,’ Says Modi.Putin Tells Him Russia Will ‘Do Its Best to Stop’ Ukraine War,”September 16, 2022, https://theprint.in/diplomacy/not-an-era-for-war-says-modi-putintells-him-russia-willdo-its-best-to-stop-ukraine-war/1131400/.Modi also spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky, expressing regret for losing life and property in Ukraine.

Moreover, after the crisis outbreak, India expanded its purchase of Russian oil, contrary to the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia.In October 2022, Russia overtook OPEC heavyweights Iraq and Saudi Arabia to become India’s largest crude oil supplier.Russian crude accounted for 22 percent of all Indian imports, while Iraq’s share was at 20.5 percent and Saudi Arabia’s—at 16 percent.46“Russia Becomes India’s Top Oil Supplier in October,” November 9, 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/russia-becomes-indias-top-oil-supplier-in-october/article66103845.ece.Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made it clear during his visit to Russia in November 2022 that India is the third largest consumer of oil and natural gas in the world and has the right to seek the most cost-effective energy supply in the international market and that as long as it works to its advantage, India will continue to purchase crude oil from Russia.47“‘India Has a Substantial, Time-Tested Relationship with Russia,’ says Jaishankar in Moscow,”November 8, 2022, https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-has-a-substantial-time-testedrelationship-with-russia-saysjaishankar -in-moscow/1204953/.In addition to energy, India also insists on importing weapons and military equipment, such as S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, despite the threat of US sanctions.

Secondly, India adopts an entirely different “neutral” stance from the West on the Ukraine crisis due to its strategic autonomy and considerations of practical interests.On the one hand, India adheres to the so-called strategic autonomy and yet it actively caters to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy.India strives to protect India-Russia relations from being affected by the development of India-US relations, ensuring its room for maneuver and maximizing India’s interests through dynamic adjustments.On the other hand, India attaches great importance to Russia’s status.During the Cold War, India and the Soviet Union had a special relationship.They signed the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation, similar to a military alliance treaty.After the end of the Cold War, India and Russia continued their strategic cooperation, and there were no significant conflicts of practical interests between the two countries.India’s stance on the Ukraine crisis is to ensure that Russia continues to support India’s core demands in the future.And it is also driven by national interests, as India’s military equipment is heavily dependent on Russia, and importing crude oil from Russia is beneficial for reducing India’s domestic inflation level.However,India’s “stubbornness” in the Ukraine crisis has left Western countries helpless and dissatisfied.Donald Lu, US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, publicly expressed disappointment with India.President Biden, who rarely expressed his dissatisfaction publicly,also stated that, among the Quad members, India was “somewhat shaky” in acting against Russia over the Ukraine crisis.48“Biden Says India ‘Shaky’ in Acting against Old Cold War Ally Russia,” March 22, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-india-somewhat-shaky-russia-over-ukraine-2022-03-22/.

Thirdly, there are significant divergences between India and Western countries on the positioning and functions of their “Indo-Pacific Strategy.”In security cooperation, the US regarded the Quad mechanism as the most crucial platform to implement its Indo-Pacific Strategy.Although India actively participates in high-level Quad meetings and promotes substantive cooperation, it diverges significantly from Western countries, especially the United States.Shivshankar Menon, a former national security adviser of India, stated in May 2020 that by then, he was still not aware of the positioning and tasks of the Quad mechanism and that only by clarifying its own positioning and main tasks can people understand what influences this mechanism might produce.49Jeff M.Smith, “The Quad 2.0: A Foundation for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” p.15.According to External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar’s comment, Quad is a forum for diplomatic consultation and coordination among countries with common demands.The four countries may not agree on all issues, but they still have many shared positions.Quad is an excellent mechanism to promote the positive development of bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral relations among the four countries.50Jeff M.Smith, “The Quad 2.0: A Foundation for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” p.16.Although the top Indian diplomat positions Quad as a“forum for diplomatic consultation and coordination,” the Indian authorities and strategic community still have doubts and uncertainties about the mechanism.Not content with S.Jaishankar’s remarks, the US and some Western countries hope to build the Quad mechanism into a paramilitary alliance with military capabilities and treaty obligations, namely the “Asian version of NATO.” For example, Tanvi Madan, a US expert on South Asia,positions the mechanism as “a security alliance led by the United States,composed of democratic countries, and aimed at containing China.”51Ibid., p.15.

The IPEF, launched in May 2022, is a crucial platform for the US to implement its economic commitment to the Indo-Pacific Strategy.It is an important measure to strengthen economic ties with regional countries after the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.In September of the same year, the IPEF partners held a ministerial meeting in Los Angeles.India was the only member that stayed out of the joint declaration on the trade pillar, one of the framework’s four pillars.According to the media, the IPEF has not provided preferential terms such as US market access and tariff reductions since the launch of the initiative,and developing countries like India cannot get preferential treatment for their goods and services to enter the US market through the framework.In addition, the framework also links environmental and labor standards to trade.As the Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal commented, being overly demanding on environmental protection issues is a form of discrimination against developing countries, as they must use low-cost and affordable energy to support economic development.52Wang Shida, “India Refuses to ‘Be Forcibly Dragged onto the Ship’ by the US,” Global Times,September 13, 2022.India’s opt-out of joining the IPEF trade pillar exposed the contradictions and divergences between India and the US on their Indo-Pacific strategies.The platforms and mechanisms designed by the US are aimed at alluring other countries to share strategic costs.Still, the US is unwilling to make substantial concessions on tariff reduction, market access, and other aspects.Therefore, it is debatable how much enthusiasm its partners can have after gradually realizing that the IPEF is not conducive to their economic and trade development.

Conclusion

With the continuous promotion of the US, India and Western countries have reached a comparatively high degree of strategic consensus on their Indo-Pacific Strategies.India and Western countries share many common security and economic interests.They will deepen their political collaboration,expand cooperation in economic, trade, investment, industrial chains,and connectivity fields, and substantially strengthen bilateral/multilateral cooperation in security.In the foreseeable future, it is difficult for the US government to reverse the process of promoting its Indo-Pacific Strategy.Western countries’ emphasis on India will not weaken or stop.The overall trend of cooperation between India and Western countries will not change in the short term.However, it should also be noted that their collaboration still faces many challenges and constraints, especially in the Ukraine crisis,which exposed the need for more strategic cooperation between India and Western countries.In addition, there are significant divergences between India and Western countries on the positioning and functions of Quad,IPEF, and other core platforms related to the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which will continue to hinder the maintenance and in-depth development of their bilateral relations.